WP2
Past trends and pattern
- to identify recent trends and patterns in the evolution of rural areas in Europe from a territorial perspective, at least for the last twenty years, considering all the relevant external and internal factors that have influenced such differentiated evolution and
- to identify the main driving factors and their uncertainties
2.1 Territorial analysis of long term trends and patterns
2.1.1 Selection of meaningful territorial indicators for external and internal factors
Based on literature review on European and national state-of-the-art approaches for regional characterisations of social, economical and environmental profiles for rural areas, using spatial and statistical databases. In order to structure the data on tangible and less tangible factors of social, economical and environmental performance in rural areas we will classify them in three meta-categories: demographics, economic structure and performance and quality of life and social well-being. The effects of global developments will be used as one of the factors which might explain changes in rural areas in the last 20 years. Factors of importance might be: developments in global demand and world market prices for different commodities, the development of the CAP, migration (both immigration and emigration), developments in tourism etc.
2.1.2 Collection and processing of data
Identification and collection of meaningful quantitative and qualitative European and (if necessary) national data sources and preparation of data for spatial analysis in an electronic database designed with ACCESS
2.1.3 Spatial Regional Reference Framework for mainly-rural, intermediate-rural and mainly-urban regions
Methodology, map and report for an integrated spatial regional reference framework at NUTS 2/3 level, integrating bio-physical and socio-economic aspects meaningful for rural regions. The typology of EU27 regions will serve as basis for the statistical analysis of this study.
2.1.4 Analysis of patterns by main themes relevant for Rural Development
Identification of coherent rural areas of key indicators such as demography, employment opportunities, productivity, infrastructure, social, tourism and recreational demands and land use
2.1.5 Analysis of trends by main themes relevant for Rural Development
Identification of coherent rural areas regarding trends of key indicators
2.2 Identification of major drivers of change and their uncertainties
2.2.1 Identification of major drivers of change in rural areas
Identification of the major drivers of change in rural areas by identifying those factors affecting a large number of regions and differentiate between long term (stable) and rapid changing (dynamic) factors and between well predictable and uncertain factors.
2.2.2 Characterization of the distinctive features of rural and urban sustainability
Characterization based on regional profiles produced in task 2.1, and description of the different dynamics regarding sustainability
D 2.1 Report on selected territorial indicators for rural development and their associated data sources (month 3)
D 2.2 Map and report for integrated spatial regional reference framework at NUTS 2/3 level integrating bio-physical, social and economical aspects
D 2.3 Map and report of main patterns and trends by main themes relevant for RD
D 2.4 Report on major drivers of change in rural areas, considering differences with urban areas